Oxford Community Event 2022

After two years, we’re excited to finally bring our Risk Decisions Community Event back.

The event is designed to provide a platform for networking and discussion around the challenges you are facing as risk management professionals today. It is an opportunity for you to share your ideas, experience, and best practice on the topics that matter to you.

Register your interest

Gary Singleton, Planning & Risk Capability Manager, BAE Systems


Gary started his career in the Civil Service in Blackpool back in 1992, leaving to join BAE Systems as a planner in 2006. He quickly progressed to lead planner, responsible for all F-35 integrated scheduling solutions and schedule risk analysis.

Gary moved into the Air PM Function in 2010 where he performed a similar role for the whole of the Air Sector. He became the Planning Manager for Air in 2015 and in 2018 took on his current role which, among other things, is to ensure the Air Sector works towards a standardised set of processes and toolsets in the planning and risk arena, which he has since been rolling out across the wider business.

Rolling out risk

This presentation will explore the challenges of implementing the Predict! toolset into a line of business within the Air Sector at BAE Systems that has never used Predict! before.

Parts of the Air Sector have historically used earlier versions of Predict! whereas others are still using bespoke databases and spreadsheets. Gary’s aim as Risk Manager is to promote a consistent approach to Risk & Opportunity Management. Throughout this presentation, he will explore some of the barriers to success when it comes to moving parts of the organisation from their trusted systems onto something new and different, and how BAE are attempting to get through them as a business.

Dale Shermon, Head of Planning, Monitoring and Control (PM&C), QinetiQ


Dale is a QinetiQ fellow and a domain leader. He leads a team for the sustainment and development of the project professional community across the business globally.

Having worked in the Aerospace and Defence environment for more than 35 years, Dale has detailed knowledge in cost estimating, forecasting and risk analysis and experience of project and programme management disciplines.

He has presented and spoken at more than 90 conferences, written numerous papers and books, delivered training worldwide and won multiple industry awards including the prestigious ICEAA Frank Freiman award for ‘lifetime contributions to parametric estimating’.

When is 50% confidence not 50% confidence?

When carrying out risk analysis, many organisations apply the 50% confidence level, ensuring that across their whole portfolio or programme, the organisation’s projects will succeed on average.

Dale will share a QinetiQ case study with techniques and approaches applicable to domains beyond the Defence and Security industry focusing on how organisations conduct risk identification.

This presentation will explore the effect of combining cost and schedule risk analysis rather than assessing them separately, leading to a very surprising outcome.


  • 09:00 – Registration
  • 09:30 – Welcome – Val Jonas
  • 10:00 – Rolling risk out to new business unit – Gary Singleton, BAE Systems
  • 10:45 – Tea/coffee/networking break
  • 11:15 – Dashboards and Predict! Connect – Hatch
  • 12:00 – Lunch
  • 13:00 – Predict! roadmap and demo – Trevor Jay
  • 13:45 – Combined cost schedule contingency – Dale Shermon, QinetiQ
  • 14:30 – Tea/coffee/networking break
  • 15:00 – Are opportunities in your sights (discussion session) – Val Jonas
  • 15:30 – Final comments and close – Val Jonas

Wednesday 29 June 2022

Register your interest